The Way Forward for America in Afghanistan
The Taliban are in control and a combination of factors led to their victory. About time Americans stop the blame game and help the Afghans, and their own future prospects.
Twenty bloody years of war in Afghanistan are over, in which 6,294 Americans lost their lives as well as hundreds of allied soldiers, NGO workers and the support staff. More than 150,000 Afghans also died. I should have prioritized those 150,000 Afghans in this writeup. But the looming American desertion of thousands of Afghan interpreters and their families — thanks to visa processing delays or outright rejections — forces me to follow this pecking order. Things are still salvageable though. This requires taking a step back from imperial hubris and empowering Afghans to fight for their future. This will also secure American strategic interests. Here is how America should proceed.
Evacuate the Allies at Lightning Speed
The current evacuation strategy is a complete disaster. The progress has been abysmally slow, even for American citizens. There are institutional delays, outright rejections of visas even after providing proof of years of serving Americans; and a general indifference to the suffering of Afghans. American agencies have just recently begun scrubbing their Websites to remove names of Afghan allies who worked for them, and now face retaliations from the Taliban. One wonders whether this scrubbing also eliminates their chances of seeking refuge in their former employers’ country.
Some suggest Biden does not want Afghans to flood American cities. It will be bad for his credentials with midterms just around the corner. Counterfactually, his approval ratings have taken a dip after the Afghan debacle.
The process to get Special Immigrant Visas (SIV) is already cumbersome. It takes years to get all the documentation and background checks. A large number of Afghans were employed by American defense contractors, some of them have been folded leaving no paper trail of their employment. There is no central database maintained by the Pentagon that can be used to crosscheck and verify. Thousands of applications have already been rejected despite applicants providing multiple evidence of helping the Americans in various capacities.
The clock is already ticking: August 31 is the deadline for American evacuation. The massive Bagram airbase, which Americans evacuated in the middle of the night in early July — without informing the Afghan government — would have come in handy in processing these evacuations. The Kabul airport is small, smack in the middle of the city and vulnerable to attacks. But Americans have to make do with what they have at hand.
One possible solution is to extend that deadline. It is doable and the Taliban have so far accommodated American presence. They can theoretically agree to a couple more weeks. In the same vein, Americans should ditch excruciating processing delays and taken on all interpreters, their families and other associates. The processing can be done in Qatar or some other friendly state.
Another option is to request Pakistan to provide a couple of military airbases close to the Afghan border. American helicopters can airlift people from the embassy grounds in Kabul, transport them to those bases (about 140 air miles) and then fly them abroad. Alternatively, they can secure safe passage of these allies to the Pakistani border crossing at Torkhum (roughly 140 miles from Kabul). This might become necessary in the coming days, as the Taliban block access to the airport (there are already reports of that).
Don’t Arm the Opposition
Foreign policy wonks and security pundits, overwhelmingly white and often as detached from ground realities as the Biden administration, are advocating for a rehashing of the pre-2001 policy, which armed anti-Taliban forces in the erstwhile Northern Alliance. The same group removed Taliban from power — with American support — in December 2001; carried out massacres, abuses and corruption; and stayed in power until the last week.
Francis Fukuyama still thinks the warlords could have shaped a modern Afghan state. This is wrong on many counts. There are harrowing tales of warlords keeping young children as sex slaves while the Americans looked away. They have subjected opponents to brutal torture; and have plundered the billions American taxpayers were sending to sustain Afghan government. The warlords have survived the onslaught, by fleeing to safe havens outside Afghanistan (and within the small Panjshir valley in the far north). Led by Amrullah Saleh, the deputy of slain warlord Ahmad Shah Masood, the group is pressing Americans to support them again in their fight against the Taliban. Masood’s son and successor penned an op-end in the Washington Post, exhorting Americans to help them fight the Taliban. Americans should keep their distance.
The younger generation of warlords will continue pocketing American money — which they have been doing since the Soviet Jihad of the 1980s — while subjecting the Afghans to brutal repression. The group has lost all public goodwill during the last twenty years, and will only exacerbate problems for Afghans and Americans. Afghan women, human rights activists and civil society members should be the only recipients of any American assistance.
Use Carrots and Sticks Against the Taliban
Some are suggesting an all-out boycott of the Taliban regime, with sanctions and possible military strikes. The logic stems from their historical support of Al-Qaeda, the presence of Islamic State in Khorasan (which Taliban oppose by the way); and the reemergence of Jihadi networks that could target western interests. Interestingly, Americans have clandestinely helped the Taliban fight ISIS, using air power and other resources. The 2020 peace agreement was predicated on that assumption and the top brass is still hedging its bets on this problematic concept.
Americans need to be on top of their game to counter any emerging threats. They have long-term strategic interests in the region. The Taliban are no longer as isolated diplomatically as they were two decades ago. China and Russia have courted them. China is already drawing up plans to exploit Afghan’s rich mineral wealth. Iran has long supported the Taliban in one way or another. It will be impossible for Americans to isolate the Taliban if they enjoy wider diplomatic currency. The calculus has shifted from punishing a pariah state to countering one backed by rival powers. China has even offered to help America have a “soft landing” of the Afghan issue.
This calls for Americans to use a carrots and sticks policy with the Taliban. A small diplomatic presence, which will also allow for listening posts, can help keep track of terrorist threats. This presence is also necessary to process visas of remaining Afghan allies. It has become abundantly clear that thousands will be stuck in Afghanistan after Aug. 31. Americans should not abandon them.
Similarly, Americans should not jettison the decades-long investment in the education and civil sector, which has enabled millions of Afghan women to pursue education and take control of their lives. Conditional assistance and supervision, by empowering NGOs in Afghanistan, can help retain some control over the Taliban. They are desperate for cash anyway. Afghan economy is sinking fast and bread riots might start soon.
The hospitals are seeing a surge in violence victims, with supplies running low. It is basic human responsibility to help people in need. Americans can work with the United Nations to prevent further human suffering.
In sum, Afghanistan and environs is far too important for America to simply cut and run. There is a need for accountability, toning down of hubris, and recalibration of strategic goals to prevent future threats and keep rivals at bay. There is little mourning period. Things are moving fast and America needs to keep pace.
Photo by Joel Heard on Unsplash